The Recession is Over

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Written by Klaraos | 16 September 2009

Gold Signal that it most likely will not Run far

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Written by Klaraos | 12 September 2009

Based on the reported CFTC data this week ended Tuesday, the net spec long position in gold rose to an all time record high (dating back to 1993), up 22% on the week to a net 225k contracts. Silver net longs rose to the most since Aug ‘08. The Bullish sentiment is also at 87%. Definitely not something you see at the beginning and middle of a run.

Also please see the following chart. If you notice the last six days of trading when gold futures (not pirate gold GLD) went from 950ish to 1006ish the volume was twice as high as recent volume with two days of long price candles followed by four days of fairly compressed price candles. The high volume compressed candles are indicative of price stopping action, not price running action.

Also please notice the OBV on the chart. It measures the direction of the balance of volume. It is basically flat from late July even though price has moved up by some 60 plus points. Not indicative of a continued strong move, but watch the OBV if we start getting net long volume Gold has ways to run.

Little Econ Humor

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Written by Klaraos | 11 September 2009

Client Party – September 17, 2009 – 5:00PM

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Written by Klaraos | 08 September 2009

Hi All,

Many of you have receieved this invitation already.  If you haven’t, please let us know and we will make sure we have the correct information in our system for you.

Please take a look at a copy of the invitation:

NOTE:  We have changed the date from September 11 to September 17.  September 17 is the following Thursday.

With the end of Summer closely in our sights, we would like to take the time and enjoy an evening with you, our most important clients.  Many of you have not seen the new offices yet, and we would love for everyone to share in our excitement, as we continue to grow and build Klaraos!

We will be having an assortment of wine, beer, and cocktails, as well as some lovely nibbles of food from one of our local restaurants, so please come hungry and thirsty, for both food and mingling.

Additionally, we want to provide an economic update from JJ, as well as a time for any questions that you may have.  We would like to give an overview of where we are, where we are going, and how we will be getting there.  There is time for fun, but we also do not want to go without delivering our message and communicating directly with you.

This will be an open forum, so please invite anyone you would like to that you think has similar thirst for knowledge (and wine)!  If they are friends with you, we would love to make their acquaintances.

If you have any questions, please give us a call at the office: 775-831-5546.  Also, if you could kindly re- RSVP with the new date, we can make sure there is enough for everyone.

Thanks.

Klaraos

Please click the link for directions to our office.  Thanks.

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=917+Tahoe+Blvd,+NV+89451&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=61.840212,106.787109&ie=UTF8&t=h&z=17&iwloc=A

Canaries Getting Sick

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Written by Klaraos | 07 September 2009

A Big Canary Getting Sick.

Since the beginning of August, various Canaries in the mine shaft that we use to measure the market tiring are starting to show signs of getting sick.  Okay, a cutesy statement, but it has some merit, and it does matter.  As we have previously discussed, the targets for the US indices for the move off the March bottom have been hit, S&P 990/1030 and Dow 9250/9500.  So while our indices have been resting other more sensitive indexes have been selling off with some fervor.

The biggest Canary we follow is the Chinese Stock Market and this Canary has an insatiable appetite for commodities. This market was up almost two fold at the beginning of August and the debate was that China might be able to pull the world to greener pastures.

The question during this entire rally is how much of this will be sustainable and how much will die off when the loose credit of China’s banks stops.  As of June this year, China already lent the same amount of money as it had during 2008.  Interestingly enough, the top on this chart, right around August 1, coincides with China’s announcement that their state run banks will reduce lending the remainder of the year by 70%.

Sure looks like sustainable demand was not created to me.  Downside target is 2400 and not far away.

 

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